Myint Soe, acting president of Myanmar’s military government, has warned that ‘his country could be divided’. His warning comes after Myanmar’s army recently lost large swaths of territory to resistance fighters. Myint Soe called on the people of Myanmar to stand by the military. But experience says, people will not listen to his call.
National Unity Government (NUG) was formed in 2021. This shadow government of exiled leaders launched a war of defense against the state army. They raise armed fighters to target military junta governments and their economic bases. The NUG’s armed fighters continue to coordinate with dozens of armed groups from various ethnic groups in Myanmar. These armed groups have been fighting the military for decades.
Now the loss of control of the junta government from different parts of Myanmar and their economic loss — indicates that the strategic position of the Chinese government is turning in the opposite direction। Chinese leaders are probably well aware of the situation in Myanmar। They understand that going with the support of the junta government can be a death knell for them।
Other allies are not as clever as Chinese leaders। Russia is now the largest arms supplier to Myanmar’s military junta government, beating China। Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has purchased 40 million worth of weapons from Russia। In exchange for air fuel from Russia, Myanmar has given Russia the opportunity to use money and ports in the Bay of Bengal। They have also given Russia a chance to be relevant in the region।
Janta leader Min Aung Hlaing recently welcomed the Russian navy into a joint exercise with Myanmar। He called Vladimir Putin ‘ world leader ’, saying Putin was creating stability in the international arena।
The NUG is planning what post-military junta Myanmar will look like। According to their plan, a unified Myanmar will be established under the leadership of Suu Kyi। But it is not a desirable solution for many armed groups fighting against the junta government in Myanmar।
They want a federal state system। They want the rights of minorities to be guaranteed। They are not satisfied with his statements on these two issues when Suu Kyi was in power at last।
The fall of the military junta in Myanmar is quite clear। But that will be too soon, it is not। Realizing the defeat, state forces can now retaliate through widespread violence। That is why the sooner the junta government collapses, the better।
Myanmar’s neighbors, ASEAN and Western powers speak harshly about the human rights situation in Myanmar। They must decide on the future of post-janta Myanmar, including all fighting groups।